IAR's Oscar Winner Predictions

Thursday, 21 February 2013 08:34 Written by  Brett Gursky
Rate this item
(3 votes)
IAR's Oscar Winner Predictions

With Oscar ballots due Tuesday, and less than a week to go until the awards are handed out on Sunday, February 24th, let's take a look at how things stand in the race for the gold. This is undoubtedly the most unpredictable Oscar race in years, and there has not been this much uncertainty since Crash faced off against Brokeback Mountain back in 2006.



BEST PICTURE 


Prediction: Argo


I predicted this back in October and I stand by it now: Argo is the Best Picture of the year. Even though Ben Affleck was snubbed in the Best Director category, this is going to be one of those rare years when the winners of Best Picture and Best Director do not match.  In fact, a movie has not won Best Picture without its director even being nominated since Driving Miss Daisy in 1990.  Argo has won every key award leading up to the Oscars: Golden Globe, Critics Choice, PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG, & BAFTA.  The Oscar will be next.

BEST DIRECTOR

Prediction: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Could be: Ang Lee, Life of Pi or David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook


Usually the winner of Best Director is easy to predict.  But Ben Affleck is not nominated and he won the DGA, the Critics Choice, and the Golden Globe for Best Director.  That means that this category is anybody's guess.  Steven Spielberg has won twice before, for Schindler's List and Saving Private Ryan, and he will likely win again for his passion project Lincoln, which leads the pack with the most Oscar nominations of any movie this year: 12.  But don't count out Ang Lee, who won for Brokeback Mountain in 2006, even though the Best Picture winner that year was Crash.  Though my personal vote would go to David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook, who has yet to win an Oscar and who was nominated two years ago for The Fighter.

BEST ACTOR

Prediction: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln


This is the one sure thing of the night. Daniel Day-Lewis will win his 3rd Best Actor Oscar for his role as Abraham Lincoln in Lincoln.  While there are other actors who have won 3 Oscars before, Day-Lewis would be the first to win all 3 in the Lead Actor category.

BEST ACTRESS

Prediction: Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Could be: Emmanuelle Riva, Amour


Jennifer Lawrence is the front-runner here.  She won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, and the SAG.  But Emmanuelle Riva won the BAFTA, which usually indicates the winner of the Oscar.  In such an unpredictable year, anything can happen.  It is possible that Jennifer Lawrence will split the votes with Zero Dark Thirty's Jessica Chastain, paving a clear path for Emmanuelle Riva to take the prize.  Amour was also nominated for Best Picture, Director, and Screenplay, which means it has a lot of support from the Academy.  It would also make for a great story: Riva turns 86 on February 24th, the same night as the 85th Annual Academy Awards.  She is not only the oldest Best Actress nominee ever, but she would be the oldest winner.  Jessica Tandy was 80 when she won for Driving Miss Daisy in 1990.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Prediction: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Could be: Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained


For the first time in Oscar history, all five nominees are previous Oscar winners: Alan Arkin for Argo, Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook, Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master, Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln, and Christoph Waltz for Django UnchainedChristoph Waltz won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA.  Tommy Lee Jones won the SAG.  But it's Robert De Niro who has gone the longest without an Oscar win.  He last won 32 years ago- Best Actor for Raging Bull in 1981.  He is long overdue and also deserves it, stealing all of his scenes in Silver Linings Playbook, which received a nomination in each of the four acting categories – something that has not happened since Reds in 1982.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Prediction: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Could be: Sally Field, Lincoln


Anne Hathaway is the front-runner here.  Like Jennifer Lawrence, she has won the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice, and the SAG.  She also won the BAFTA.  Not only did she cut her hair and lose weight for the role, but her performance of “I Dreamed A Dream” seemed to steal the show.  Her closest competition is Sally Field, who has been nominated twice before for Best Actress and won both times (Norma Rae in 1980 & Places in the Heart in 1985).  If Field does win again, she can tell the Academy, “You really, really, really like me.”

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Prediction: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty

Could be: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained


Mark Boal won the WGA for Original Screenplay, which gives him the edge.  This also seems to be the category in which the Academy will honor Zero Dark Thirty with an Oscar.  Boal won this award in 2010 for The Hurt Locker and will likely repeat here.  But you can never count out Quentin Tarantino, who won the Golden Globe this year for Best Screenplay for Django Unchained and who has not won an Oscar since Pulp Fiction in 1995.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY 


Prediction: Chris TerrioArgo

Could be: Tony Kushner, Lincoln


Chris Terrio won the WGA for Adapted Screenplay, which puts him in the lead.  His script for Argo was adapted from both Tony Mendez's book “The Master of Disguise” and Joshuah Bearman's Wired magazine article "The Great Escape”.  With a likely win for Argo for Best Picture, Terrio should find himself in the winner's circle here as well.  His closest competition is Tony Kushner, who adapted Doris Kearns Goodwin's book “Team of Rivals” into the screenplay for Lincoln (which originally clocked in at 500 pages).

Be sure to check out IAR's 2013 Oscar Preview and the latest installment of Brett Gursky's podcast, On the List, in which he and IAR Managing Editor Jami Philbrick discuss this year's Academy Awards.

Watch the results unfold live during the 85th Annual Academy Awards on ABC this Sunday, February 24th.

More in this category

Follow ROGUE

Latest Trailers

view more »