IAR's Oscar Winner Predictions

Thursday, 23 February 2012 15:42 Written by  Brett Gursky
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IAR's Oscar Winner Predictions

With Oscar ballots due earlier this week, and only a few days to go until the Oscars on Sunday, February 26th, here is how things stand in the race for the gold... 



BEST PICTURE
Prediction: The Artist
Could be: The Help

While The Artist is in the lead, having won the Critics Choice award, the Golden Globe, and the BAFTA (Britain's equivalent to the Oscar), the cast of The Help won the SAG award for Best Ensemble, which often predicts the winner of Best Picture. 

 


BEST DIRECTOR
Prediction: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist
Could be: Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Hazanavicius won the DGA award, which more often than not predicts the winner of Best Director, but don't forget that Scorsese won the Golden Globe for Hugo, which is his personal love letter to the history of cinema. 


 


BEST ACTOR
Prediction: George Clooney, The Descendants
Could be: Jean Dujardin, The Artist

Clooney won the Critics Choice award, and then the Golden Globe for Best Actor/Drama, and it looked like he was on a roll. Dujardin won the Golden Globe for Best Actor/Comedy and then bested Clooney for the SAG award, which usually predicts the Oscar winner. Both actors have been campaigning on the talk show circuit. Plus Clooney did a cover-story interview with The Hollywood Reporter, while Dujardin did a Funny Or Die video and a guest appearance on Saturday Night Live. This is one of the tightest races of the night, besides Best Actress. 


 
 


BEST ACTRESS
Prediction: Viola Davis, The Help
Could be: Meryl Streep, The Iron Lady

First Davis won the Critics Choice award. Then Streep won the Golden Globe. Then Davis won the SAG award. Then Streep won the BAFTA, but that should be expected when she played a British figure like Margaret Thatcher. The result? The Help, nominated for Best Picture, has been a much better received film than The Iron Lady, which gives Davis the edge. Plus, she's never won before, but Streep has won twice (in 17 career nominations). The actresses co-starred in Doubt, for which they were both nominated for Oscars in 2009, and it seems like even Meryl Streep is pulling for Viola Davis for the win this year...

 
 


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Prediction: Octavia Spencer, The Help
Could be: Nobody else

Spencer is going to win an Oscar for her work in The Help.  I predicted it on Twitter when I saw the film on its opening weekend in August. She has since won the Critics Choice award, the Golden Globe, the SAG, the BAFTA, and everything else in between. The Oscar is hers to lose. Her closest competition?  Real-life best friend Melissa McCarthy for her scene-stealing, breakthrough role in Bridesmaids. 


 


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Prediction: Christopher Plummer, Beginners
Could be: Nobody else

Plummer is going to win an Oscars for his work in Beginners.  Like Octavia Spencer, I predicted the Christopher Plummer win on Twitter when I saw the film back in June. At age 82, Plummer has a film career that dates back to the 1950's. Yet he has only been nominated for an Oscar once - in 2010 for The Last Station He is a beloved actor, from films like The Sound of Music, who is long overdue for some recognition. This year, his time has come. His closest competition? The brilliant Max Von Sydow for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close, who is also 82 years old, and who also has yet to win an Oscar. 


 


BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Prediction: Woody Allen, Midnight in Paris
Could be: Michel Hazanavicius, The Artist

Woody Allen won the Golden Globe and the all-important WGA award leading up to the Oscars. He also deserves it, for what was arguably the most enjoyable movie of the year, as well as Allen's most successful and highest-grossing film ever. It looks like Allen has the edge over Hazanavicius, whose screenplay for The Artist is for a silent film with only one actual line of dialogue. 


 


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Prediction: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon & Jim Rash, The Descendants
Could be: Stan Chervin, Arron Sorkin & Steve Zaillian, Moneyball

Once a front-runner for Best Picture, The Descendants - and Alexander Payne - should find their reward in the Best Adapted Screenplay category. Payne, Faxon, and Rash just won the WGA award for Adapted Screenplay - alongside Midnight in Paris for Original Screenplay - both of which should repeat at the Oscars. It will be interesting to see if The Descendants can score both Best Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay - or if the Academy will only give them one over the other as a way to recognize the film. And if that's the case, which one? Their closest competition here? Last year's winner in this category, Aaron Sorkin, and his team behind Moneyball.


Watch the results unfold live during the 84th Annual Academy Awards on ABC this Sunday, February 26th!

And be sure to check back with IAR this weekend for all the winners and results from both the the 84th Academy Awards and the Independent Spirit Awards

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